October 30, 2020
#2379: Probability Comparisons
[Large heading, centered.]
Probability Comparisons
[Left column.]
0.01% You guess the last four digits of someone’s social security number on the first try
0.1% Three randomly chosen people are all left-handed
0.2% You draw 2 random Scrabble tiles and get M and M
You draw 3 random M&Ms and they’re all red
0.3% You guess someone’s birthday in one try.
0.5% An NBA team down by 30 at halftime wins
You get 4 M&Ms and they’re all brown or yellow
1% Steph Curry gets two free throws and misses both
LeBron James guesses your birthday, if each guess costs one free throw and he loses if he misses
1.5% You get two M&Ms and they’re both red
You share a birthday with a Backstreet Boy
2% You guess someone’s card on the first try
3% You guess 5 coin tosses and get them all right
Steph Curry wins that birthday free throw game
4% You sweep a 3-game rock paper scissors series
Portland, Oregon has a white Christmas
You share a birthday with two US Senators
5% An NBA team down 20 at halftime wins
You roll a natural 20
6% You correctly guess someone’s card given 3 tries
7% LeBron James gets two free throws and misses both
8% You correctly guess someone’s card given 4 tries
9% Steph Curry misses a free throw
10% You draw 5 cards and get the Ace of Spades
There’s a magnitude 8+ earthquake in the next month
11% You sweep a 2-game rock paper scissors series
12% A randomly-chosen American lives in California
You correctly guess someone’s card given 6 tries
You share a birthday with a US President
13% A d6 beats a d20
An NBA team down 10 going into the 4th quarter wins
You pull one M&M from a bag and it’s red
14% A randomly drawn scrabble tile beats a d6 die roll
15% You roll a d20 and get at least 18
16% Steph Curry gets two free throws but makes only one
17% You roll a d6 die and get a 6
18% A d6 beats or ties a d20
19% At least one person in a random pair is left-handed
20% You get a dozen M&Ms and none of them are brown
21% St. Louis has a white Christmas
22% An NBA team wins when they’re down 10 at halftime
23% You get an M&M and it’s blue
You share a birthday with a US senator
24% You correctly guess that someone was born in the winter
25% You correctly guess that someone was born in the fall
You roll two plain M&Ms and get M and M.
26% You correctly guess someone was born in the summer
27% LeBron James misses a free throw
32% Pittsburgh has a white Christmas
33% A randomly chosen Star Wars movie (Episodes I-IX) has “of the” in the title
You win the Monty Hall sports car by picking a door and refusing to switch
You win rock paper scissors by picking randomly
34% You draw five cards and get an ace
35% A random Scrabble tile is one of the letters in “random”
[Right column.]
39% LeBron James gets two free throws but misses one
40% A random Scrabble tile is a letter in “Steph Curry”
46% There’s a magnitude 7 quake in LA within 30 years
48% Milwaukee has a white Christmas
A random Scrabble tile is a letter in Carly Rae Jepsen
50% You get heads in a coin toss
53% Salt Lake City has a white Christmas
54% LeBron James gets two free throws and makes both
58% A random Scrabble tile is a letter in “Nate Silver”
60% You get two M&Ms and neither is blue
65% Burlington, Vermont has a white Christmas
66% A randomly chosen movie from the main Lord of the Rings trilogy has “of the” in the title twice
67% You roll at least a 3 with a d6
71% A random Scrabble tile beats a random dice roll
73% LeBron James makes a free throw
75% You drop two M&Ms and one of them ends with the “M” up so it’s clear they’re not Skittles
76% You get two M&Ms and neither is red
77% You get an an M&M and it’s not blue
78% An NBA team wins when they’re up 10 at halftime
79% St. Louis doesn’t have a white Christmas
81% Two random people are both right-handed
83% Steph Curry gets two free throws and makes both
85% You roll a d20 and get at least a 4
87% An NBA team up by 10 going into the 4th quarter wins
Someone fails to guess your card given 7 tries
88% A randomly chosen American lives outside California
89% You roll a 3 or higher given two tries
90% Someone fails to guess your card given 5 tries
91% You incorrectly guess that someone was born in August
Steph Curry makes a free throw
92% You guess someone’s birth month at random and are wrong
93% Lebron James makes a free throw given two tries
94% Someone fails to guess your card given 3 tries
95% An NBA team wins when they’re up 20 at halftime
96% Someone fails to guess your card given 2 tries
97% You try to guess 5 coin tosses and fail
98% You incorrectly guess someone’s birthday is this week
98.5% An NBA team up 15 points with 8 minutes left wins
99% Steph Curry makes a free throw given two tries
99.5% An NBA team that’s up by 30 points at halftime wins
99.7% You guess someone’s birthday at random and are wrong
99.8% There’s not a magnitude 8 quake in California next year
99.9% A random group of three people contains a right-hander
99.99% You incorrectly guess the last four digits of someone’s social security number
99.9999999999999995% You pick up a phone, dial a random 10-digit number, and say ‘Hello Barack Obama, there’s just been a magnitude 8 earthquake in California!" and are wrong
0.00000001% You add “Hang on, this is big — I’m going to loop in Carly Rae Jepsen”, dial another random 10-digit number, and she picks up
[In light grey colour and in the lower left corner there is text.]
Sources: https://xkcd.com/2379/sources/ [https://xkcd.com/2379/sources/]