October 15, 2018

# #2059: Modified Bayes' Theorem

[The comic shows a formula with a header in gray on top:]

Modified Bayes’ theorem:

[The formula:]

P(H|X) = P(H) × (1 + P(C) × ( P(X|H)/P(X) - 1 ))

[Variables and functions are described also in gray:]

H: Hypothesis

X: Observation

P(H): Prior probability that H is true

P(X): Prior probability of observing X

P(C): Probability that you’re using Bayesian statistics correctly