← Back

September 4, 2017

#1885: Ensemble Model

Ensemble Model

[Inside this single panel comic the header on top reads:]

In an ensemble model, forecasters run many different versions of a weather model with slightly different initial conditions. This helps account for uncertainty and shows forecasters a spread of possible outcomes.

[To the left side a picture shows several gray overlapping swirling lines emitted from a point, then gradually diverging rightwards. Below are two smaller pictures; the first shows the lines connected to several loops and in the second it’s still a similar figure to the above but moving into the opposite direction with the point emerged to a spiral.]

[The text right to the pictures reads:]

Members in a typical ensemble:

A universe where…

…rain is 0.5% more likely in some areas

…wind speeds are slightly lower

…pressure levels are randomly tweaked

…dogs run slightly faster

…there’s one extra cloud in the Bahamas

…Germany won WWII

…snakes are wide instead of long

…Will Smith took the lead in The Matrix instead of Wild Wild West

…swimming pools are carbonated

…sliced bread, after being banned in January 1943, was never re-legalized.