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June 9, 2014

#1379: 4.5 Degrees explain

4.5 Degrees

Without prompt, aggressive limits on CO2 emissions, the Earth will likely warm by an average of 4°-5°C by the century’s end.

HOW BIG A CHANGE IS THAT?

[A ruler chart is drawn inside a frame; above the chart is written:]

In the coldest part of the last ice age, Earth’s average temperature was 4.5°C below the 20th century norm.

Let’s call a 4.5°C difference one “Ice Age Unit.”

[A ruler with five main divisions — each again with 3 smaller quarter division markers. Above it the five main divisions are marked as follows with 0 in the middle:]

-2 IAU -1 IAU 0 +1 IAU +2 IAU

[Next to the 0 marking a black arrow points toward 0.25 on the scale and above it is written:]

Where we are today

[The rest of the text is below the ruler.]

[To the far left below -2 IAU a curved arrow points to the left. Below it is written:]

Snowball earth (-4 IAU)

[Below -1 IAU a black arrow points toward this division. Below the arrow is written:]

20,000 years ago

[Below this an image of a glacier. At the top of the image is written:]

My neighborhood:

[At the bottom of the image is an arrow pointing to the glacier.]

Arrow: Half a mile of ice

[Below 0 IAU a black arrow points toward this division. Below the arrow is written:]

Average during modern times

[Below this an image of Cueball standing on a green field with a city skyline in the background. At the top of the image is written:]

My neighborhood:

Cueball: Hi!

[Below +1 IAU a black arrow points toward this division. Below the arrow is written:]

Where we’ll be in 86 years

[Below this a white image. At the top of the image is written:]

My neighborhood:

[Below this is a very large question mark.]

?

[Below +2 IAU a black arrow points toward this division. Below the arrow is written:]

Cretaceous hothouse

+200m sea level rise

No glaciers

Palm trees at the poles