July 10, 2013

# #1236: Seashell

((At the top of the panel is an equation showing Bayes’ Theorem for the probability that a person is near the ocean given that they just picked up a seashell.))

The probability that I’m near the ocean given I picked up a seashell equals the probability I picked up a seashell given I’m near the ocean times the probability I’m near the ocean all divided by the probability I picked up a seashell.

[[A person holding a seashell stands to the left of the panel, to the right a few birds are flying around and the sound of a wave crashing against the shore is depicted.]]

«Crashhh»

«Sploosh»

Caption: Statistically speaking, if you pick up a seashell and don’t hold it to your ear, you can probably hear the ocean.

{{Title text: This is roughly equivalent to ’number of times I’ve picked up a seashell at the ocean'

’number of times I’ve picked up a seashell’, which in my case is pretty close to 1, and gets much closer if we’re considering only times I didn’t put it to my ear.}}