October 29, 2012
#1127: Congress explain
{{incomplete transcript}}
A history of
The United States Congress
Partisan and ideological makeup
[The comic is divided into three massive sections, SENATE, PRESIDENCIES, and HOUSE. Timelines run backwards down the page between each section. In the HOUSE and SENATE sections, shifting, curving red and blue areas of different brightness illustrate the shifting balance of power between “Members of Left-Leaning Parties” and “Members of Right-Leaning Parties”. Under PRESIDENCIES, different administrations are labeled and wars are shaded in gray. There are notes throughout all sections.]
[There are additional notes on the right.]
LEGEND
[Square containing ribbons of color merging upwards with larger areas]: Branches join in when new members enter Congress and cause an ideological bloc to grow. (Note: If the new member is elected as another retires from the same ideological bloc, no change is shown.)
[Square containing ribbons of color splitting off from larger areas]: Branches split off when members leave Congress, causing their ideological bloc to shrink. (Note: If the new member is elected as another retires from the same ideological bloc, no change is shown.)
[Square showing yellow dotted line crossing from red to blue area]: The yellow line marks the midpoint, which indicates which side has control of the chamber.
[Square in which curve briefly separates from blue area]: If a bloc loses members in one election and gains them in the next, the exiting stream may rejoin. This does not necessarily mean the same people returned.
[Square showing white dashed line labeled Lyndon Johnson on top of ribbon merging with main area]: Future (and past) US Presidents who served in Congress are shown with white dashed lines. Other noteworthy members are shown with thin solid lines.
[Square in which tinted area marked “Whig” sits over mix of red and blue areas]: Tinted white outlines mark the approximate membership of some of the smaller political parties.
HOW IDEOLOGY IS CALCULATED
Each member of Congress is assigned to an ideological category using DW-NOMINATE, a statistical system created by political scientists Keith Poole and Howard Rosenthal. This system rates each member of Congress’s ideological position position [sic] based on their votes.
DW-NOMINATE is purely mathematical and involves no judgement on the content of bills. Instead, members of Congress are placed on a spectrum based on how consistently they vote together.
While people argue that ideology is many-dimensional, Poole and Rosenthal found that nearly all Congressional voting behavior - especially in the modern era - can be accurately predicted by using just one ideological variable.
This variable turns out to roughly correspond to position on the classic economic liberal/conservative spectrum.
Because members of Congress have served in overlapping terms with past members in a chain back to the first Congress, the system allows comparison of ideology across time - even accounting for individual members’ ideological drift. (Note: Scores are comparable across time but not between chambers.)
For more detail, see Poole and Rosenthal’s website, voteview.com.
The basic contradiction of a party of slaveowners ostensibly standing for egalatarianism would go unresolved until the late 20th century. The 18th Congress w.ta,s,echoaveorwtic.hWeimhaitnghiayddobemcionmanet
iftPRae tpU jbel iffcea rnssc:rf’;:gpmeen’tecdrai tniO four warring factions. DEMOCRATIC-REPUBLICANS The Democratic-Republi cans (or “Jefferson ian Republicans”) were the party formed by the anti-administration faction.
This chart places them provisionally on the left, although since they absorbed many pro-administration figures, their DW-NOMINATE average is very cloo to zero.
ANTI-ADMINISTRATION The anti-administration faction favored states’ rights and farmers, and opposed what they saw as Hamilton’s tendencies toward elitism and monarchism.
PRESIDENCIES Barack Obama
2006-2004
2002-2000
1998-1996
1994-1992
1988
1.6 1984
1.2 1980
1938 1936
1 93 1
George W. Bush.
Bill <LINTON
George H.VV. sewu BUSH.
Ronald REAGAN.
Jimmy CARTER Gerald FORD.
—
Richard NIXON.
Lyndon B. JOHNSON
John F KENNEDY
Dwight EISENHOWER.
Harry S •TRUMAN
Roo.. di…Re
(ROOSEVELT
1906 1904
190 2 1900
1886 1884
1 882 1880
1866 1864
1862 1860
Ig8 1856
I 806 1804
Calvin COOLIDGE. Warren G. HARDING.
Woodrow _II/11 WILSON
William Howard TAFT.
Theodore ROOSEVELT.
Mc Krt. assassinated
Benjamin HARRISON.
Grover CLEVELAND Chester A. ARTHUR’ l’adrnesA. GARFIELD• Rutherford B. HAYES.
Ulysses S.
GRANT.
Andrew JOHNSON.
Abraham LINCOLN.
James (BUCHANAN
Franklin PIERCE
Millard FILLMORE. zachary TAYLOR.
James K. •POLK John TYLER. HARRISON•
Martin Van •BUREN
Andrew JACKSON
John Quincy ADAMS.
James •MONROE
james w"18’i MADISON
Thomas JEFFERSON
John ADAMS.
George WASHINGTON.
2002 2000
I 9 98 1996
I 95, 1988
I 9 86 1984 1980 1976
1972 1968
I 9 66 1964 1960
I9S8 1956
I 9 SO 1948
I 946 1944
1932 1928 1924
1922 1920 1916 1912 1908
I 9 06 1904 1900
1 898 1896
1890 1888
1886 1884 1880 1876 1872 1868
I 8 66 1864 1860
I8S8 1856
I 8 SO 1848
1832 1828 1824 1820 1816 1812 1808
1806 1804 1800
1796
I 7 90 1788
HOUSE
Members of Left-Leaning Parties Members of Right-Leaning Parties 311 320
h Right
The Tea Party wave of 2010 helped House Republicans regain all the ground they had lost in 2006 and 2008 and then some.
The Democratic Party’s gains in 2006 and 2008 came largely from centrist candidates in swing districts—the same ones who would – be voted out in 20 I
Center
Democratic losses in 1994 came almost exclusively among centrists, leaving the left and far left blocs relatively untouched—a pattern which would continue in 2010
Democrats gained a
While the size of the Republican majority didn’t Np change very much during this period, its internal makeup did.The centrist bloc nearly vanished, and in every election from 1984 to 2004, the far right bloc grew.
Newt Gingrich’s Republican Revolution of 1994 gave the GOP control of the House for the first time in 40 years.
With Ronald Reagan’s election in 1980, Republicans regained the ground they lost afterWatergate.
number of-House oats
in the aftermath of the
Watergate scandal.
Democrats added seats in 1958 through wins in the Rust Belt and the gain of every seat in Connecticut’s delegation.
The New Deal wave consisted almost entirely of centrist Democrats. Over the course of the 20th century, theo centrists generally lost ground to left and far-left Democrats—a slow motion version of the process that has happened more rapidly and completely among House Republicans.
Other than these few years after the war, the House was under Democratic control for the entire period from the Great Depression until the Republican Revolution of 1994.
Republicans gained seats in I 942, as they had in the late 9I0s, due to concern over American entanglement in a war in Europe.
The onset of the Great Depression sparked a huge backlash against the Republicans who had held power throughout the 1920s.
PROGRESSIVE ‘1 AND fARME LABOR PARTIES
After losing his bid for the nomination, Roosevelt ran as a third-party candidate, splitting the Republican vote and leading to Wil.n’s victory and huge (albeit temporary) Democratic gains in the House.
The 1896 presidential contest, which pitted Democrat William Jennings Bryan against Republican William McKinley, was probably the most heated election in American history.
In 1882, Democrats won seats thanks to disapproval of a Republican Congress that seemed too friendly to industry.
POPULIST
The “Panic of 1893” economic depression led to Republicans winning the largest single landslide in Congressional history. John Clayton was elected after ing a first count t 1:fttlefIrtlunsg if:te h e
The Democrat of seats in I 880 but no *, swon a lot one seems really sure why.
was shot by an unidentified assassin. His ideological category is unknown.
1 I
Disapproval of Grant’s handing of the Panic of I 873 (an economic depression) led to Democrats winning control of the House for the first time since the war.
CIVIL*WAR
After most Southern represtatives left to join the Confederate Congitss, the Democrats who remained were defined by opposition to the war
REPUBLICANS The Republican Party formed around opposition to slavery. As the party of the North, it
and financial interests, i ndustrialization, and Puritan - influenced social reforms eventually culminating in the Pro hibiti on movement.
WHIGS The Whigs were supporters of business and markets, economic modernization, and social reform.
They ultimately collapod over the issue of slavery, with the abolitionist faction eventually becoming the Republican Party.
The factions created by the .h ism in the Ion Congress then rejoined into a chaotic series of new parties, some only lasting one term. with Alexander Hamilton and administration faction allied ADMINISTRATION The pro-administration faction favored a central bank, and relaxed relations with party formed from the pro-George Washi ngton. sound national fiscal policy, Great Britain. PRO-FEDERALISTS The Federalists were the
LEGEND
Congress and cause an ideological bloc to grow rZtnill7d=o= C’nongre’ess.s Taliturg’theireniderftm’rological=to striik LIM it,‘Ithetirem=7:::To"17ww7
, WHIG
Thin:LT:fiche sidenw’shasth:cornitrol’oinf tthe’cramber.
If a bloc Loses members in coe electich and gains them in the next. the exiting stream may reioin. nereehily mem de • tS who sem. Othr7;dZs’!.°:7b7:::sh.rMelt =intcd
Tinted We. outlines mark the approomate rnember.ip of some of the smaller pot..
HOW IDEOLOGY IS CALCULATED
Each member of Congress is assigned to an ‘ideological category usrig DWNOMINATE a stat.ical system created by political scientists Keith Poole and Howard Rosenthal This system rat. each member of Congress’s idedegical poshion positich based ch their votes. DWNOMINATE is pure, mathematical and involv. no judgernent co the content of bilk Instead.rnembers of Ccogress are placed ch a spectrum based ch how consistent, they vote together. VVhAe people argue that ideology is rrany-dimen,onal. Poole and Rosenthal found that nearly all Congres,onal voting
predicted by using just coe ideological variable. This variable tums out to rough, arrespond to position ch
Because members of Cal,. have served in overlapping terms with past members in a chain badcto the frst Congress.the system dm. comparisch of irfeology across
.11_ (Note: Scores are ccmparable across time but not between chambers,
F….de… Fn.
From the 1960s to the 1990s, conservative Southerners gradually left the Democratic Party while liberal Northerners moved the other way—reducing the ideological overlap between the parties and making each more homogenous.
Political scientists break US history into partisan eras called “party systems.” Although the Fifth Party System (the New Deal Coalition) underwent this massive realignment in the 1960s and 1970s, they refuse to agree that the Fifth Party System has ended, because they can’t point to a specific election where the realignment happened.This means we’re now in the second part of the Fifth Party System, which seems like it might just be a political science Deathly Hallows/Breaking Dawn thing.
Voters in the early days of the Great Depression rallied around New York governor Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who united farmers, labor unions, academics, and minorities into the New Deal Coalition, whose slow disintegration was at the core of partisan politics for much of the 20th century
The late 1800s saw an obsessive focus on the issue of bimetalism that it took me a while to understand.
Farmers and poor people who owed money favored a dual gold-silver standard, because it would lead to inflation, which would make debts easier to pay off. Wealthy bankers—who owned that debt—wanted the opposite.This became the focus of a Main St. vs.Wall. St cultural struggle culminating in William Jennings Bryan’s famous “Cross of Gold” speech. (Despite his fiery oratory, Bryan lost the presidential election to McKinley)
Politics in the first half of the 1800s was completely dominated by the issue of slavery, which was supported by poor white Southern farmers—Democrats—and opposed by the Northern Protestant intellectuals and wealthy businesspeople who formed first the Whigs and then the Republican Party.
During this period, as during the Civil Rights era, a second DW-NOMINATE variable becomes important, and corresponds to voting behavior on regional issues. If the first variable represents the left-right variable, then during these periods the second variable could simply be thought of as representing the racism spectrum.
The first divide in Congress was between supporters (right) and opponents (left) of the Washington Administration. –>