#718: The Flake Equation explain

The Flake Equation:

P = WP × (CR + MI) × TK × F0 × F1 × DT × AU ≈ 100,000

Where:

WP = World Population (7,000,000,000)

CR = Fraction of people who imagine an alien encounter because they’re crazy or want to feel special (1/10,000)

MI = Fraction of people who misinterpret a physical or physiological experience as an alien sighting (1/10,000)

TK = Probability that they’ll tell someone (1/10)

F0 = Average number of people they tell (10)

F1 = Average number of people each friend tells this “firsthand” account (10)

DT = Probability that any details not fitting the narrative will be revised or forgotten in retelling (9/10)

AU = Fraction of people with the means and motivation to share the story with a wider audience (blogs, forums, reporters) (1/100)

Even with conservative guesses for the values of the variables, this suggests there must be a huge number of credible-sounding alien sightings out there, available to anyone who wants to believe!